Showing posts with label cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cycle. Show all posts

Friday, August 19, 2011

Indicators -- point to recession?

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey results:  (the only positive thing about this is that it's regional & was taken during the height of the debt ceiling debate)



The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.

All Indicators Show Declines

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009 
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8/1 Institute of Supply Management report about July:



Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower


New Orders and Inventories Contracting
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 24th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 26th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

Monday, August 15, 2011

August U of M Consumer Sentiment Index

moneygame chart of the day:


As the chart shows, the reading has now hit a level not seen since early 2008.



The latest University of Michigan sentiment numbers (which came in very weak) underscore an emerging trend in the economy right now: There's a pretty big gap between sentiment and "the data." Sentiment, expressed by surveys (consumer surveys, NFIB small business, and yes, even the stock market, which is a daily survey) have been pretty ugly lately. The data actually hasn't been that bad. Job numbers have actually been solid, with initial claims coming in below 400K this week. The retail sales number that came out this morning was surprisingly strong. Earnings for the quarter: Pretty excellent. One of the two will have to give. Either the market will rebound, and people will see that the freakout was unfounded (That's basically the case made by Matt Busigin here) or the data will catch up to the downside, which would be bad.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/economy-wile-e-coyote-moment-2011-8#ixzz1V6NYKCnh

More fun charts:



Friday, July 1, 2011