Friday, July 15, 2011

Unemployment

Last week, I talked about Interest Rates and Inflation in my kinda weekly cobbled together informational post.


This week, I'm going to do a two-parter on Unemployment.  (Charts from my post last week) So here's the first part.  Definition, numbers from the disastrous announcement from last week, and reflections from various sources.  The add on will be a broader look at unemployment and why it's an important metric.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Debt Ceiling

From a speech on the Senate floor from March, 2006:

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies.

Over the past 5 years, our federal debt has increased by $3.5 trillion to $8.6 trillion.That is “trillion” with a “T.” That is money that we have borrowed from the Social Security trust fund, borrowed from China and Japan, borrowed from American taxpayers. And over the next 5 years, between now and 2011, the President’s budget will increase the debt by almost another $3.5 trillion.

Numbers that large are sometimes hard to understand. Some people may wonder why they matter. Here is why: This year, the Federal Government will spend $220 billion on interest. That is more money to pay interest on our national debt than we’ll spend on Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. That is more money to pay interest on our debt this year than we will spend on education, homeland security, transportation, and veterans benefits combined. It is more money in one year than we are likely to spend to rebuild the devastated gulf coast in a way that honors the best of America.

And the cost of our debt is one of the fastest growing expenses in the Federal budget. This rising debt is a hidden domestic enemy, robbing our cities and States of critical investments in infrastructure like bridges, ports, and levees; robbing our families and our children of critical investments in education and health care reform; robbing our seniors of the retirement and health security they have counted on.

Every dollar we pay in interest is a dollar that is not going to investment in America’s priorities.

Senator Barack Obama
Senate Floor Speech on Public Debt
March 16, 2006
Today, it's the same speech, just bigger numbers and the other party.

unemployment

source

Comparing unemployment from different Recessions (2 charts)

source  Horizontal axis shows months. Vertical axis shows the ratio of that month’s nonfarm payrolls to the nonfarm payrolls at the start of recession. Note: Because employment is a lagging indicator, the dates for these employment trends are not exactly synchronized with National Bureau of Economic Research’s official business cycle dates.



Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

GDP forecast

Italy


more posts from the NYT, and the Guardian, and a Bloomberg article about concerns in the Eurozone (Greece, Italy, Debt, etc).

From the Economist:
...But the inability of euro-area policymakers to resolve Greece’s debt crisis, and this week’s Moody’s downgrade of Portugal, have not helped. Spreads between Italian ten-year bonds and German Bunds have today hit another euro-era record. Domestic financial institutions have been hit, too: shares in Unicredit, a big bank, were suspended today after a sharp fall, and credit-default-swap spreads on Generali, an insurer, have surged as well...


Monday, July 11, 2011

Unemployment Charts

very solid posts here and here -- both with more charts that are really great (and sobering)