Friday, December 9, 2011
Bullish? Rail Carload y o y
i am done trying to figure out the markets & macro direction. Railroads don't lie, tho & here's today's Money Game Chart of the Day
This chart showing the year-over-year change in rail carloads in November speaks for itself: Things are getting better and better.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Hussman weekly report -- indicator aggregates
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111205.htm
another great weekly post. He aggregates indicators to try to gauge overall macro direction. Not pretty. accurate?
one pullout:
"...Moreover, we can select random subsets of these indicators across random periods of time, in order to make the model less sensitive to exactly how it is put together. That method typically produces more variation in the overall conclusion about the economy, so the confidence in that conclusion is particularly strong when multiple models agree. At present, we observe agreement across a broad ensemble of models, even restricting data to indicators available since 1950 (broader data since 1970 imply virtual certainty of recession). The uniformity of recessionary evidence we observe today has never been seen except during or just prior to other historical recessions...:
another great weekly post. He aggregates indicators to try to gauge overall macro direction. Not pretty. accurate?
one pullout:
"...Moreover, we can select random subsets of these indicators across random periods of time, in order to make the model less sensitive to exactly how it is put together. That method typically produces more variation in the overall conclusion about the economy, so the confidence in that conclusion is particularly strong when multiple models agree. At present, we observe agreement across a broad ensemble of models, even restricting data to indicators available since 1950 (broader data since 1970 imply virtual certainty of recession). The uniformity of recessionary evidence we observe today has never been seen except during or just prior to other historical recessions...:
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