Thursday, September 22, 2011

Monday, September 19, 2011

truth in retirement

Gordon Brown: Euro Crisis Is Even Worse Than Lehman  

history doesn't repeat itself, but...


If you review the monthly charts of the S&P 500 during the last bear market (below) and the current chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (2nd chart), the answer appears to be “just getting started.” It should be noted that bearish signals on monthly charts are more important than those on a daily or weekly chart. Recently, the S&P 500 has started to lag the German Index, which has been a bearish signal in the past.

 Compare points A, B, C, and D in the chart above to A, B, C, and D in the chart below. It can be expensive in the longer-term to ignore the facts on these charts. You may be able to compare the charts better here.
There is next to nothing on the weekly charts to suggest the market has found a permanent bottom. Could stocks continue to rally, even for a few weeks? Sure, but the odds say the gains will be fully retraced in the coming months. The list below speaks volumes about the current outlook for the markets from a longer-term perspective. Our review of the charts was done in such a way as to bend over backwards looking for bullish signals - they are just not there, nor does it look like they will evolve from the current rally.