Friday, September 2, 2011

European Banking crisis

another Ambrose Evans-Pritchard gem:


Central bank flight to Federal Reserve safety tops Lehman crisis

A key warning signal of global financial stress has shot above the extreme levels seen at the height of the Lehman crisis in 2008.


Cutout:
Data from the St Louis Fed shows that reserve funds from "official foreign accounts" have doubled since the start of the year, with a dramatic surge since the end of July when the eurozone debt crisis spread to Italy and Spain.
"This shows a pervasive loss of confidence in the European banking system," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors. "Central banks are worried about the security of their deposits so they are placing the money with the Fed."

Europe Grinds to a Halt?



Europe Grinds To A Halt

Eurozone PMI plunged to a two-year low this morning, indicating a worse-than-expected slowdown and triggering declines for the euro on easing expectations.

Manufacturing PMI -- regarded as an early indicator of recession -- fell to 49.0 in August from 50.4 in July, indicating that while GDP is still expanding manufacturing is stalled.

According to Credit Suisse, inventories are at their highest since December 2008, but the lack of demand for goods means that manufacturers will probably have to cut production to reduce overhead in the months ahead. If we regard this orders-to-inventories statistic as an early indicator for manufacturing PMI and ISM, then we're likely to see these numbers slip further over the next few months

Thursday, September 1, 2011

QE2 vs QE3?

Great zerohedge article about the difference between QE2 and the inevitable (?) QE3.  Read it!

Slowdown? / Focus is on Europe!


ITALY:  Bank of Italy warns on growth as bond sale falters -- Reuters

EURO BANKS 1: WSJ article (need login, but even if you don't the key point is above the login):  In a 54-page report sent to hundreds of Goldman's institutional clients dated Aug. 16, Alan Brazil—a Goldman strategist who sits on the firm's trading desk—argued that as much as $1 trillion in capital may be needed to shore up European banks; that small businesses in the U.S., a past driver of job production, are still languishing; and that China's growth may not be sustainable.

EURO BANKS 2: Business Insider article: The Latest on the funding situation at European Banks:
"Regardless of the actual liabilities of these banks, it is doubtful any of them could have planned for this sudden drop in equity. At the same time, earnings aren't picking up the slack. Add that to new fears that the Greek bailout will not go through quickly enough to save Greece from a full-blown default (no selectivity) and the ensuing contagion risks.
The real wild card here is the European Central Bank. It could provide virtually unlimited funds to these banks, but their balance sheets have to be strong enough to qualify for lending. This should not be a problem in France and Germany, but the longer it takes to come out with a viable solution to this crisis, the more likely this problem could be."
LIBOR RISE: Finally, a nice Chart from Business Insider about LIBOR rates



Major banks on both sides of the Atlantic are self-reporting higher and higher interbank USD borrowing rates, meaning that funding is getting more expensive in a hurry.
This graph from ZeroHedge demonstrates a sharp rise in the 3-month USD LIBOR -- a benchmark interest rate for short-term borrowing of U.S. dollars -- over the last two months. Every bank detailed saw an increase in its short-term borrowing costs.
Reuters reports that European banks are paying slightly more than the fixed LIBOR rate while U.S. banks slightly less. On the whole, 3-month rates are at their highest since last August.
We keep talking about signs that the funding situation for eurozone banks is going downhill, and this looks like the newest sign that dollars are becoming increasingly expensive. Rising borrowing costs could provoke a credit crunch that would lead to another global slowdown.

Monday, August 29, 2011

US forecast, China Slowdown, gold/bonds compared to 2008, and Germany / EU debt


All eyes on Germany in September.  Things are not looking good for Merkel or the German Economy.  Here are a bunch of different mini-posts that all point to the same outcome -> this Fall will be "interesting" for lack of a better term, and the next 3 years can be painful.

News from around the world:

GDP adjusted for CPI

nothing big from Bernanke.  Might have to do something sooner rather than later:

From Moneygame:  The economy grew by 1% in the second quarter, according to inflation-adjusted preliminary data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

But to most Americans it did not feel like growth. 

That's because the inflation adjustment used by the BEA is far more conservative than the Bureau of Labor's consumer price index, which is based on prices paid for goods and services -- i.e. the things that consumers notice. 

When adjusted for CPI, the economy actually shrunk by a stunning 3.4% in the second quarter, according to Economist Doug Short