Indicators -- point to recession?

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey results:  (the only positive thing about this is that it's regional & was taken during the height of the debt ceiling debate)

The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.

All Indicators Show Declines

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009 

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8/1 Institute of Supply Management report about July:



Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower


New Orders and Inventories Contracting
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 24th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 26th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.