Friday, September 30, 2011

Goldrunner forecast


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldrunner092611.html



The following Gold Chart shows that the cyclical tendency since early 2009 has been for Gold to bottom at the green arrows with Gold correcting down to and through the dotted Bollinger Band (BB) mid-line to hit the 34 week exponential moving average while the RSI Indicator approaches the 50 line. Gold fell to the BB mid-line on Friday as the RSI approached the 50 line. Black rays off of the 2008 top show that Gold has been bottoming at each black line extended over the "last top." Gold reached that juncture on Friday. We might see Gold weakness early next week, but we expect the basic relationship to hold. Near this point in the 70's Gold Chart, an imminent bottom produced a sharp rise.

Growth Correlations


A chart from Citi shows the rising correlation of regional economic growth to the global aggregate. For the past decade all regions have been moving in harmony, with correlation peaking right about now. Globalized trade, cross-border financial links and faster-moving information have all contributed to the trend. One major outcome of high correlation is volatility.