Ron Paul on CNBC last week

Armstrong 8/19 support levels

New Martin Armstrong gold/dow analysis:

Gold:
We closed above 1818 today, warning we can still press higher into tomorrow
This week’s resistance at 1860-1900, then 2050-60; close above 1900 signals explosive run next week.
Next week: 1910-1960, then 2085-2105.
If 2100 broken, possible phase transition to 2400-2600 level this month.
Support forming at 1730; we stay bullish if this holds on closing basis.

DJIA:
Close below 11280 signals weakness.
Close below 10906 may signal sharp drop next week.
Monthly close below 10320 points to retest of 2009 low with support at 6952

Jim Sinclair also had a recent good analysis & focus on what the Fed will do next:
http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/08/10/in-the-news-today-944/

Indicators -- point to recession?

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey results:  (the only positive thing about this is that it's regional & was taken during the height of the debt ceiling debate)

The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.

All Indicators Show Declines

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009 

________________________


8/1 Institute of Supply Management report about July:



Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower


New Orders and Inventories Contracting
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 24th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 26th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.

EOCI Index NOW at recession levels

source

The EOCI Index is a weighted average of the Fed Regional Manufacturing Surveys, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, The NFIB Small Business Survery, Leading Economic Indicators and the STA Composite ISM index

European Banks -- BIG TROUBLE AHEAD for everyone

from zerohedge:

Cue Panic As Fed Resumes Liquidity Swap Lines, Lends $200 Million To Swiss National Bank, Most Since October 2010

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2011 - 16:19

If yesterday's news broken by ZH that one bank was in dire need of US dollars and ended up borrowing $500 million from the ECB was enough to send the market down almost 5% today, then the follow up news that the FRBNY just reactivated FX swap lines with Europe will likely send ES limit down at tomorrow's open. The FRBNY has just announced that in the week ended August 17, it lent out $200 million to not the ECB, not the BOE, but the "most stable" of all banks: the SNB. This is the first use of the Fed's Swap Lines since March, and the most transacted under this "last ditch global bailout swap line" (see more on how the Fed bailed out the world using swap lines here) since October 2010. This event also gives us a hint that the European bank in question in dire need of cash is Swiss, which in turn means that it is not some usual PIIGS suspect, but one of the two "big ones." If true, this means that the European insolvency, liquidity and what have you crisis is about to take an exponential step function higher.

Soros interview -- Germany & Eurobonds?

Der Spiegel Interview with George Soros

'You Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds'

In a SPIEGEL interview, billionaire investor George Soros criticizes Germany's lack of leadership in the euro zone, arguing that Berlin must dictate to Europe the solution to the currency crisis. He also argues in favor of the creation of euro bonds as a way out of the turbulence.

August U of M Consumer Sentiment Index

moneygame chart of the day:


As the chart shows, the reading has now hit a level not seen since early 2008.

The latest University of Michigan sentiment numbers (which came in very weak) underscore an emerging trend in the economy right now: There's a pretty big gap between sentiment and "the data." Sentiment, expressed by surveys (consumer surveys, NFIB small business, and yes, even the stock market, which is a daily survey) have been pretty ugly lately. The data actually hasn't been that bad. Job numbers have actually been solid, with initial claims coming in below 400K this week. The retail sales number that came out this morning was surprisingly strong. Earnings for the quarter: Pretty excellent. One of the two will have to give. Either the market will rebound, and people will see that the freakout was unfounded (That's basically the case made by Matt Busigin here) or the data will catch up to the downside, which would be bad.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/economy-wile-e-coyote-moment-2011-8#ixzz1V6NYKCnh

More fun charts: