Edward M. Dempsey: The German yield curve is beginning to invert. Yield curves should be positively sloped if all is well since it reflects healthy demand for money. When you get an inverted yield curve, it is a very reliable harbinger of a coming recession. It reflects concerns of an economic slowdown and deflationary period. So now you can have a scenario where if Germany enters recession, and given that Germany is the strongest link in the euro chain, what happens to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal? In that kind of a scenario, German public support for the euro can very, very quickly evaporate. Everyone is worried about Greece being kicked out of the euro, but what if you wake up and Germany says, "We are out of the euro"? I don't believe that is outside the realm of possibility.
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