Economist looks at Suez traffic vs. world GDP

Running aground

Sep 2nd 2011, 13:56 by The Economist online

An alternative indicator points to a slowing world economy

FURTHER economic strife may be ahead as a swathe of recently released data points to a slowdown in the world economy. This is confirmed by one alternative measure: the amount of cargo passing through the Suez Canal in Egypt. Approximately 8% of the world's international trade is estimated to flow through the canal, so it acts as a good early indicator of the prevailing economic conditions. The average increase in the total weight of cargo passing through the canal was 5.7% in the three months to July, down from 9.5% in December. Making a simple forecast based on the past few months' data suggests that world GDP will fall from 3.8% in the first quarter to 3.3% in the second quarter.